Krechetova Maria

Power and Violence in Russia: Bayesian Scenario Analysis

M.Krechetova and G.Satarov continue the line of reasoning laid out in their article Power and Violence (Russian Case) (see Politeia, 2015, № 4) and attempt to reconcile their thoughts with the current political situation in Russia and the results of scenario forecasting analysis that they carried out in Spring 2016 (together with Yury Blagoveshchensky) in the framework of the joint project of Liberal Mission and INDEM foundations. The study shows that Russia is moving away from the inertial scenario, which seemed most likely only six months ago, towards the scenarios of a “Besieged fortress” and “Explosion” that imply an increase in physical violence.

DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2016-83-4-68-81

POWER AND VIOLENCE Case of Russia

In order to assess the threat of the Russian authorities’ exercising mass physical violence, M.Krechetova and G.Satarov analyze prerequisites for the realization of this threat and the restrictions that the political leadership may face if it possesses an intention to turn to such measures. After thoroughly elaborating on the terminology used, the authors consider the basic conditions for the growth of political violence (including political rent and weakness of authorities), explore the dynamics of the political violence in Russia and simultaneously touch upon the specific conditions of the expansion of violence in our country. After that the authors, relying on the ideas of Hannah Arendt, refer to the morphology of physical political violence, describing its triggers and limits.

DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2015-79-4-5-116-139

On Words Substitution

The article raises the question of using “language substitutions” and euphemisms when defining contemporary political regime in Russia. The problem is considered on the examples of the expert discussion on the terms “dictatorship” and “authoritarianism” as well as short-term and medium-term forecasts of the political development of Russia carried out by the Fund Indem. The authors conclude that without reflecting on substitutions that occur as a result of playing around the words, concepts and meanings, and without acknowledging their consequences we risk finding ourselves in a situation described in a famous article by Benjamin Whorf The Relation of Habitual Thought and Behavior to Language, when workers comfortably smoke while standing near the gasoline tanks since the latter are labeled as “empty”.

DOI: 10.30570/2078-5089-2013-71-4-23-35